April 25 2024
November 2025 is a long way off, heck we are six-plus months out from the 2024 Presidential election, much less the Virginia Governor’s race. But 2025 is closer than you think. 2025 is when Virginians will shuffle off to the polls to vote for their next Governor.
The Virginia constitution limits Governors to a single term at a time, without the ability to run for a second term consecutively. Terry McAuliffe did run for a second term in 2021, but he joined a very short list of other former governors in Virginia seeking a second act, and only a couple have successfully run for and won a second term. Mills Goodwin was the last one to be a two-term governor, in the 1970s.
All of this means that the relatively popular current Governor, Glenn Youngkin, will not be able to run for a second term until 2029 at the earliest. And he may have his sights on a higher office anyway.
So, the field for the 2025 race is wide open to new faces. Previous Governor Northam has not indicated any desire to run again, and, for reasons, Bob McDonnell is unlikely to run again either.
On the Democratic side, Abigail Spanberger emerged early on as a favorite. She has raised a heck of a lot of cash and was way ahead on polling against other Democratic hopefuls.
The other hopeful is Levar Stoney, the current Mayor of Richmond. Stoney had the backing of former Governor Terry McCauliffe but struggled to narrow the polling gap or raise a lot of money. He announced on April 22 that he was dropping out of the Governor race to instead try his hand at lieutenant governor. That race, in Virginia, is a separate race from the Governor position.
His dropping out leaves the Democratic position basically wide open for Spanberger. Yes, it is early and someone could come out of the woodwork to run. That person would have to raise some serious money and would have to have pretty good name recognition to spar with Spanberger.
I am open to suggestions.
Meanwhile, on the Republican side, the top two contenders so far seem to be folks in office right now- Jason Miyares and Winsome Sears. So far, based on some very early polling, Sears seems to have the lead.
A Spanberger – Sears match-up would be historical on many levels for Virginia (and possibly the country). Some things to keep in mind:
- It would likely mean a woman as Governor. From Patrick Henry (1776) through Youngkin, every Virginia Governor has been male.
- Every Governor has also been a European American save for Douglas Wilder (1990-1994), so far the commonwealth’s only African-American Governor.
- Winsome Sears would be the first female African-American candidate. She would also be the first person born in the Caribbean to be a major party candidate in Virginia. If elected she would, however, not be the first Virginia Governor born outside of the United States. William Flemming served as Governor for about 8 days in 1781 during the Revolutionary War. Flemming was born in Scotland.
- A Spanberger-Sears match-up would be the first time two women ran as the two main party candidates for Governor in Virginia.
- Neither would be the first woman to run for governor, Mary Sue Tery ran in 1993 against George Allen, who eventually defeated Terry to become Governor.
- Virginia would not be, by a long shot, the first state to have both major candidates for Governor be women. In 2022 alone such a match-up occurred in Alabama, Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, and Oregon. (Although, to be fair, before 2022 Governor races with both candidates being women were vanishingly rare- 2002 in Hawaii and 1986 in Nebraska).
All told the 2025 Virginia Governor’s race is shaping up to be one for the record books and possibly a pretty exciting one. But let’s get through November 2024 first.
Dave Richards Politics 