May 16 2024
Believe it or not, Nikki Haley is no longer running for president. No seriously. She dropped out on March 6, 2024, over two months ago. Really.
That’s why since she dropped out after Super Tuesday she has gotten, checks notes,
13% of the vote in Georgia, 5% in Mississippi, 20% in Washington state, 18% in Arizona, 14% in Florida, 16% in Kansas, 7% in Louisiana, 14% in Connecticut, 13% in New York, 13% in Wisconsin, 10% in Rhode Island, and almost 17% in Pennslyvania.
And in this week’s primaries, she got 20% of the vote in Maryland, 18% in Nebraska, and 9% in West Virginia. No one else came close (except, of course, Trump, who won all three primaries).
And during that whole time has also won, double checks notes, zero delegates.
But that’s not the point. Stay focused.
Since the primaries started, Haley has won 20% of the popular votes in the primaries.
20%, 1/5th of the vote.
Ok, I can hear it now- well of course she is getting votes, she’s on the ballot as an artifact. She got on the ballot, states didn’t take her off, so of course she got some votes.
This is, partly true. Other candidates have also been left on the ballot and gotten votes. Ron DeSantis was on the Florida ballot, where he is governor. And while Haley got 14% of the vote, Desantis got… 1.6% of the vote.
It is not just because Haley is still on the ballot. So, what is going on here?
Some thoughts:
Some folks, even some Republicans, find Trump to be an.. unsatisfying GOP candidate. Yes, lots of people are mad at Daddy Biden, because life could be better, I guess, but that does not mean that they think Trump is a great candidate. Haley’s continued (moderate level of) success shows that there are still a fair amount (a fifth?) of Republicans who are not ready to drink the MAGA-flavoured Kool-Aid.
This should not be a surprise. Trump may have vanquished all comers in the primary, but remember that a year ago it looked like DeSantis was going to easily defeat Trump to win the nomination. Trump has muscled his way to the front as if he was at the NATO summit all over again.
Haley represented, for a brief moment, a relatively level-headed alternative. Of course this was her downfall, she was a moderate-right Republican in a party that has been busy purifying itself further and further to the right for the last three years.
So why would anyone throw their vote away on Haley at this point? Trump flatly denied rumors this week that she would be his VP pick, and because of rules changes, even getting 20% of the vote no longer nets Haley any delegates.
Maybe people are signaling that they will not vote for Trump in November. If so, who do they vote for? Biden- probably not. Biden is not flaming liberal, but generally, his policies agitate even moderate Republicans. RFK Jr., possibly. RFK’s policies generally straddle both the left and the right, depending on the issue. We should keep an eye on his numbers.
But in the end, Haley’s persistent showing in the primaries may be all that there is to the story- people frustrated with their choices, but who understand that a vote for Haley in a primary is just a protest vote. In the end, we may see most of that 20% come back to the GOP fold in November.