Why Can’t We Quit Nikki Haley?

May 16 2024

Believe it or not, Nikki Haley is no longer running for president. No seriously. She dropped out on March 6, 2024, over two months ago. Really.

That’s why since she dropped out after Super Tuesday she has gotten, checks notes, 

13% of the vote in Georgia, 5% in Mississippi, 20% in Washington state, 18% in Arizona, 14% in Florida, 16% in Kansas, 7% in Louisiana, 14% in Connecticut, 13% in New York, 13% in Wisconsin, 10% in Rhode Island, and almost 17% in Pennslyvania. 

And in this week’s primaries, she got 20% of the vote in Maryland, 18% in Nebraska, and 9% in West Virginia.  No one else came close (except, of course, Trump, who won all three primaries). 

And during that whole time has also won, double checks notes, zero delegates. 

But that’s not the point. Stay focused.

Since the primaries started, Haley has won 20% of the popular votes in the primaries. 

20%, 1/5th of the vote. 

Ok, I can hear it now- well of course she is getting votes, she’s on the ballot as an artifact. She got on the ballot, states didn’t take her off, so of course she got some votes. 

This is, partly true. Other candidates have also been left on the ballot and gotten votes. Ron DeSantis was on the Florida ballot, where he is governor. And while Haley got 14% of the vote, Desantis got… 1.6% of the vote. 

It is not just because Haley is still on the ballot. So, what is going on here? 

Some thoughts:

Some folks, even some Republicans, find Trump to be an.. unsatisfying GOP candidate. Yes, lots of people are mad at Daddy Biden, because life could be better, I guess, but that does not mean that they think Trump is a great candidate. Haley’s continued (moderate level of) success shows that there are still a fair amount (a fifth?) of Republicans who are not ready to drink the MAGA-flavoured Kool-Aid. 

This should not be a surprise. Trump may have vanquished all comers in the primary, but remember that a year ago it looked like DeSantis was going to easily defeat Trump to win the nomination. Trump has muscled his way to the front as if he was at the NATO summit all over again. 

Haley represented, for a brief moment, a relatively level-headed alternative. Of course this was her downfall, she was a moderate-right Republican in a party that has been busy purifying itself further and further to the right for the last three years. 

So why would anyone throw their vote away on Haley at this point? Trump flatly denied rumors this week that she would be his VP pick, and because of rules changes, even getting 20% of the vote no longer nets Haley any delegates. 

Maybe people are signaling that they will not vote for Trump in November. If so, who do they vote for? Biden- probably not. Biden is not flaming liberal, but generally, his policies agitate even moderate Republicans. RFK Jr., possibly. RFK’s policies generally straddle both the left and the right, depending on the issue. We should keep an eye on his numbers.

But in the end, Haley’s persistent showing in the primaries may be all that there is to the story- people frustrated with their choices, but who understand that a vote for Haley in a primary is just a protest vote. In the end, we may see most of that 20% come back to the GOP fold in November.

Yes, John McGuire is a Political Opportunist, Does that Matter?

May 6 2024

There is no love lost between current House of Representative member Bob Good and his 5th district primary opponent John McGuire. The Good campaign has accused McGuire of being a “political opportunist.”

Let’s unpack that a little (and on Friday we’ll unpack McGuire’s counter-claim that Bob Good is a RINO).

Yes, McGuire is a political opportunist-

The main issue seems to be that McGuire announced he would primary Bob Good just a few days after he himself won a seat in the Virginia Senate. There is an old saying in politics- “Dance with the one that brung ya.” Roughly translated- play by the rules if you want the party to help you -don’t jump around from office to office without first putting in the hard work of serving in the office you just got elected to. 

Parties like this idea because, after all, a lot of hard work goes into a political campaign (not to mention the large amount of money). Candidates are an investment that (hopefully) pays off in an office holder, who in turn becomes, next election, an incumbent. Incumbents have a much greater chance of winning their election than non-incumbents. Ideally, a party would spend less time(and money!) getting an incumbent re-elected versus starting from scratch.

So when McGuire announced he would run in the primary against Bob Good mere days after winning a state senate election, it meant that now both he and Good would have to spend more money (McGuire getting his name out there, Good defending his incumbency). And, if McGuire wins, spending more money backfilling the state Senate seat. 

I say, so what? We want our politicians to be opportunists (to an extent)- willing to jump when the opportunity presents itself, especially if they think it will benefit their constituents. Now, does McGuire think it will benefit his constituents, or just himself? That’s the rub.

However, I would also add, pot (Bob Good) meet kettle (McGuire). 

The Good campaign would do well to recall that Good himself was once a “political opportunist,” albeit not in precisely the same way. 

Bob Good got his current seat by seizing on a political opportunity. He first ran in 2020 because the then-current incumbent, Dan Riggleman, had committed the cardinal sin of officiating at a same-sex wedding, thereby throwing his “true” conservative bona fides into doubt. Good saw the opening and dove right in, much as McGuire is diving in on the fairly thin pretense that Good is a RINO because he did not initially support Trump in the 2024 primaries. 

Now, granted, Good had not just won another election when he decided to run, in fact, he had never won an election before, not even a primary.

But if we really want to talk about political opportunism, here’s a fact for you- Bob Good has never won a primary. This is because, in 2020 and 2022, the GOP in Virginia ran “firehouse” primaries in the 5th district. These limited primaries allowed Good to bypass getting popular GOP support and instead win the nomination via his own supporters showing up to a brief, closed, convention-style primary. 

Not that I am blaming Bob Good for doing this. After all, he saw an opportunity and he took it.

RFK Jr. Won’t Win the 2024 Election, But He Will Decide It

May 3 2024

RFK Jr. won’t Win the 2024 Election, but he will decide it

We are now entering the last slog of the primaries. Primary season is over, but no lady, fat or fit, is ready to sing until July at the earliest (for Democrats, August for Republicans). So one’s mind drifts toward what the primaries of late mean for the fall election. 

Yes, the obvious takeaway is that it will be Biden and Trump (oh, oops “spoiler alert”). But in the back of my mind, another candidate has begun taking up free real estate in my brain- RFK Jr. 

No, Robert f Kennedy Jr. is not on any of the primary ballots, but he is beginning to loom large anyway. And, no, not because he picked a VP running mate already, but because he has the potential to be king-maker in November. Or, less charitably, he might spoil someone’s shot at a second term in the presidency. 

There is little chance RFK will win outright, or even win any electoral college votes. Heck, he is, as of writing this, only on about half a dozen state ballots (and that’s rounding up). But he does not need to be on all 50 state ballots to influence things. If Trump can win 4 or 5 states he lost last time, he could win in the electoral college, likewise, if Trump loses in states he won in 2020, Biden’s path back to the White House is easier. 

So far he is on the Michigan ballot, so let’s take a closer look at that state. In 2020 Biden won Michigan with about 150,000 votes. Not a bad margin, but the margin was less than 3% of the vote there. Independents got about 1.5% of the vote in Michigan- folks like Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) and Howie Hawkins (Green).

RFK Jr. is no ordinary independent candidate. Right now he is polling at 9.9% in Michigan. Biden, in that same poll, is trailing Trump by less than 2%. If we look back at 2020 Biden is down almost 5% from where he was over Trump in the election.

So where is that 5%? Maybe Biden really is that unpopular or people may really have a strange nostalgia for the Trump presidency. 

Or, maybe, just maybe, RFK Jr.’s 10% is taking, at least 5% from Biden’s camp. Probably more since Trump is doing ok in the same poll. 

Now, these polls are imaginary to a degree- people are not actually voting. It might be fun to imagine a 3rd party candidate winning now, but as we get closer to election day maybe people will snap to it and play it safe, ignoring the RFK Jr. candidacy. 

But what if they didn’t? Would he take enough votes away from Biden for Trump to win Michigan again (as he did in 2016)? What if does the same thing in Pennsylvania where Biden won in 2020 by just over 1% or Arizona where Biden won by 0.03%  (less than 11,000 votes) of the vote? 

In Utah, where RFK Jr. is also on the ballot, 24% of likely voters said, in a recent poll, that they would vote for a 3rd party candidate. And Utah voters may not just be whistling past the graveyard, in 2020 20% of them voted for Evan McMullin. That same election saw Trump win Utah by over 19%, right now Trump is ahead by 6% based on the most recent polling. Has Trump’s margin narrowed because of his legal troubles or has RFK Jr. taken some of Trump’s voters away? And would it be enough to swing Utah (not likely, but not out of the question)?  

A much more likely scenario is that RFK Jr. could harm Trump in a state like North Carolina, where Trump won in 2020 by about only 1.5%. 

Trump faces unusual headwinds- former candidate Nikki Haley is still getting double-digit percentages of the votes in primaries (16% in the most recent primary, held in Pennsylvania). What will those voters do on election day when they cannot vote for Haley? Vote Trump? Sit at Home? Or vote for RFK Jr. as a sort of protest vote? 

The real issue with RFK Jr.’s run is that, so far, it is difficult to tell where his supporters are coming from. Maybe Republicans, but many of RFK’s positions run counter to the GOP platform, perhaps Democrats, although some of his positions seem at odds with the Democrats. 

RFK could also be drawing in folks from the sidelines who maybe sat out 2020, unhappy with the two major party choices. Perhaps he’s attracting young voters, who were too young to vote in 2020, but now are seeking someone who is relatively young (relatively- Kennedy is 70). 

Of course, it could be all of these types of voters. 

People answering polls as a cold Spring unfolds around them might act very differently in November as the leaves fall and winter approaches. Faced with the reality that Kennedy may take votes from the “wrong” candidate, voters may come back to the two major party candidates. 

But if they do not, and enough people vote for Kennedy and not Trump or Biden, Kennedy could end up swinging a few key states and tipping the balance. 

A Good Sign That Good Faces Headwinds in Primary

May 1 2024

A Good Sign That Good Faces Headwinds in Primary

Normally one does not look to the local tractor dealership to gauge the political weather, but these are not normal times.

Driving down the highway in the US 5th District I noticed this sign. The first time I drove by I barely saw it- plenty of Trump signs and more than a few Trump/Good signs as our 5th district incumbent Bob Good ramps up for his re-election in November. 

But then I took a second look. 

The sign was not a Trump/Good sign, but a Trump/McGuire sign.

If you don’t know, John McGuire is challenging Bob Good in the upcoming Republican primary. Primary challenges do not get much more classic than this. It seems that McGuire is taking advantage of a momentary slip of Goods’, albeit one that lasted a few months.

Early in the Presidential primary process, when it looked like DeSantis might be a more electable and more mainstream candidate and an antidote to Trump’s then floundering campaign, Good endorsed DeSantis. 

The second DeSantis flamed out, Good enthusiastically came back to Trump, but the damage had been done. Good’s MAGA credentials were in question.

It’s a rich story, especially if one recalls that Good himself got into office by questioning the conservative bona fides of his predecessor, Dan Riggleman. 

But Good, nothing less than the chair of the ultra-right Freedom Caucus in the US House, had little to fear from Trump’s wrath. His seat in the 5th district is pretty safe, with the district going his way by 15 points in 2022. 

Nonetheless, John McGuire announced he would challenge Good in the 2024 primary just days after McGuire himself won a seat on the Virginia state Senate. Such a quick jump by McGuire has gotten him labeled a political opportunist.

And the Good campaign would desperately like you to believe that McGuire is just that, an opportunist and not a serious threat. 

But… But. McGuire has raised over half a million dollars, within spitting distance of Good’s $850,000. And McGuire has had help from PACs seeking to unseat Good. 

And, for me at least, the really troubling sign for Good is, well, a sign. Generally, folks in the 5th district fall into two broad political groups- good Republican voters who turn out for the GOP and a liberal minority that manages to fight (and lose) the impossible odds every election.

Seeing signs that link McGuire to Trump is a sign that a fracture may be appearing in the 5th district GOP. Is it real or is it just people frustrated with Bob Good? The upcoming June primary will tell us more obviously. 

But until then, the signs are there…

Could It Be Spanberger – Sears In the Fall of 2025?

April 25 2024

November 2025 is a long way off, heck we are six-plus months out from the 2024 Presidential election, much less the Virginia Governor’s race.  But 2025 is closer than you think. 2025 is when Virginians will shuffle off to the polls to vote for their next Governor.

The Virginia constitution limits Governors to a single term at a time, without the ability to run for a second term consecutively. Terry McAuliffe did run for a second term in 2021, but he joined a very short list of other former governors in Virginia seeking a second act, and only a couple have successfully run for and won a second term. Mills Goodwin was the last one to be a two-term governor, in the 1970s.

All of this means that the relatively popular current Governor, Glenn Youngkin, will not be able to run for a second term until 2029 at the earliest. And he may have his sights on a higher office anyway.

So, the field for the 2025 race is wide open to new faces. Previous Governor Northam has not indicated any desire to run again, and, for reasons, Bob McDonnell is unlikely to run again either.  

On the Democratic side, Abigail Spanberger emerged early on as a favorite. She has raised a heck of a lot of cash and was way ahead on polling against other Democratic hopefuls.

The other hopeful is Levar Stoney, the current Mayor of Richmond. Stoney had the backing of former Governor Terry McCauliffe but struggled to narrow the polling gap or raise a lot of money. He announced on April 22 that he was dropping out of the Governor race to instead try his hand at lieutenant governor. That race, in Virginia, is a separate race from the Governor position. 

His dropping out leaves the Democratic position basically wide open for Spanberger. Yes, it is early and someone could come out of the woodwork to run. That person would have to raise some serious money and would have to have pretty good name recognition to spar with Spanberger. 

I am open to suggestions.

Meanwhile, on the Republican side, the top two contenders so far seem to be folks in office right now- Jason Miyares and Winsome Sears. So far, based on some very early polling, Sears seems to have the lead.

A Spanberger – Sears match-up would be historical on many levels for Virginia (and possibly the country). Some things to keep in mind:

  • It would likely mean a woman as Governor.  From Patrick Henry (1776) through Youngkin, every Virginia Governor has been male.  
  • Every Governor has also been a European American save for Douglas Wilder (1990-1994), so far the commonwealth’s only African-American Governor. 
  • Winsome Sears would be the first female African-American candidate. She would also be the first person born in the Caribbean to be a major party candidate in Virginia. If elected she would, however, not be the first Virginia Governor born outside of the United States. William Flemming served as Governor for about 8 days in 1781 during the Revolutionary War. Flemming was born in Scotland. 
  • A Spanberger-Sears match-up would be the first time two women ran as the two main party candidates for Governor in Virginia. 
  • Neither would be the first woman to run for governor, Mary Sue Tery ran in 1993 against George Allen, who eventually defeated Terry to become Governor. 
  • Virginia would not be, by a long shot, the first state to have both major candidates for Governor be women. In 2022 alone such a match-up occurred in Alabama, Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, and Oregon. (Although, to be fair, before 2022 Governor races with both candidates being women were vanishingly rare- 2002 in Hawaii and 1986 in Nebraska). 

All told the 2025 Virginia Governor’s race is shaping up to be one for the record books and possibly a pretty exciting one. But let’s get through November 2024 first.

DeSantis’ Central Flrodia Oversight Board is a Hot Mess… Again

March 25 2024

DeSantis’ Central Florida Tourism Oversight District Continues to be a Hot Mess… Again

In the never-ending saga that is the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District (aka, the new Reedy Creek Improvement District board) there’s been a new wrinkle.

A quick premier for those just joining us- Florida Governor Ron DeSantis decided to make an example of the state’s largest private employer when Disney dared to criticize his “Don’t Say Gay” legislation. DeSantos, in his imperial phase, ordered the legislature to undo the over 50-year-old charter that had set up the Reedy Creek Improvement District as a way for the Disney company to control, politically, what happened on their property. The deal was, to put it mildly, interesting, as it devolved almost all political power from the state of Florida to the Walt Disney Company. But the deal worked well enough for 50 years, allowing Disney to have total control over its 27,000+ acre resort. Central Florida saw tremendous growth (in both population and tax base) while Disney kept its “bubble” safe.

A flurry of lawsuits, from both the state of Florida and the Walt Disney Company followed the legislative action that did away with Reedy Creek and introduced the Central Florida Tourism OVersight District (CFTOD). Disney sued on the grounds that they felt that DeSantis used the legislature to punish the company’s freedom of political speech. Florida, in return, sued Disney because of the last-minute deal that the Reedy Creek District approved as it was being dismantled. Then one of the board members got caught up in a scandal that also threatened the Florida GOP. Board member Bridget Ziegler missed a December 2023 meeting of the board. Ziegler is patient zero for DeSanti’s war against Disney. She helped found Moms for Liberty, the organization that was instrumental in getting the Parental Rights in Education Act through the Florida legislature, the very “Don’t Say Gay” law that Disney objected to in the first place. Then DeSantis appointed her to the CFTOD board. Subtle, DeSantis is not. 

Missing a meeting is typically not a huge deal, but Ziegler’s absence happened after a woman accused Ziegler’s husband of rape; Ziegler has acknowledged that the woman alleging misconduct was once involved with Ziegler and her husband in an affair. Calls for Bridget Ziegler to resign her position on the Sarasota School Board have gone nowhere as she refuses to step down, and she still serves on the CFTOD board. Meanwhile, Ziegler’s husband was removed as Florida GOP chair in January 2024. All somewhat tawdry for sure, but also not a great look for DeSantis if he is trying to shame Disney. 

So, to summarize the short — but by no means exhaustive — details: Since DeSantis decided to take on Disney, the largest private employer in Florida, he has incurred several lawsuits from Disney; the state has itself started several lawsuits against Disney; the state has been out-maneuvered by Disney despite undoing Disney’s political advantage in the district; the new board had one chair resign for unknown reasons, but after DeSantis appointed his wife as a judge, and had a second board member is now swept up in a tawdry, unfolding scandal. I have not even mentioned the problems with employees, including firefighters and law enforcement, in the district, the potential for Florida taxpayers to end up paying for the old district’s debt, or other issues involving the new board. 

The latest development on the CFTOD hardly rises to the level of scandal, but it does ride to the level of “things that make you go hmmmm.” Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has appointed Glen Gilzean as Supervisor of Elections in Orange County. And what does this have to do with the CFTOD? Mr. Gilzean also happens to serve as Administrator to the CFTOD, a job that pays him $400,000 a year. 

Gilzean was appointed after the first chair abruptly resigned. Michael Sasso resigned from the board just four months into his term. Sasso never explained why he resigned, but DeSantis appointed Sasso’s wife, Meredith Sasso, to the Florida Supreme Court just before the resignation. The Sassos and DeSantis have a long history of traveling in the same circles. 

It is not clear that Mr. Gilzean will stay on as Administrator to CFTOD or that if he did there would be a conflict of interest. Already, after DeSantis appointed him to chair the Florida Commission of Ethics in 2019 and reappointed him, Gilzean had to step down in 2022 after people pointed out that those who serve on that commission cannot hold other public offices (re-the CFTOD). 

As Administrator to CFTOD, Gilzean abolished the district’s diversity, equity, and inclusion program (left over from the Reedy Creek days). He has come under fire for this from the organization he used to work for, the Central Florida Urban League. 

So, are we back at a hot mess on the CFTOD? Glizean was appointed Administrator to clean up the last mess, but now he is the new mess.

It looks like that on Monday, March 11 DeSantis tried to clean up the mess by appointing Stephanie Kopelousos, one of his closest political advisors who was key in his unsuccessful bid for the GOP presidential nomination. She also worked on his Big Tech social media bill, which, ironically included a carved out for the Disney Company when it was passed three years ago, according to the Orlando Sentinel.

But the mess persists. Although it is expected that Gilzean will resign from the CFTOD, so far there is no word if he will give up his $400,000 a year salary he gets serving on the CFTOD board. 

And to top off all of that, it was suddenly announced on March 13 that board chair Martin Garcia would step down (or perhaps was pushed out) immediately. Although Garcia had been a large donator to the DeSantis campaign, he was not as actively involved in the DeSantis administration as other board members have been.  

What this really points to is a larger problem with DeSantis, his insistence on surrounding himself with political yesmen and political lackeys that bring little experiance to the business of running the world’s most successful amusement park/resort. 

What is Wrong With Kamala Harris, exactly?

Feb 29, 2024

What’s the matter with Kamala Harris, exactly?

Is Biden too old to run for a second term? I mean,  there is a 93-year-old Irish man who regularly breaks indoor rowing records, he seems just fine and is 12 years older than Joe Biden. On the other hand, Queen Margrethe II of Denmark abdicated on New Year’s Eve 2023 and she is only 83.  Whatever challenges that role may present, it is not as challenging as being President of the United States. So, why are people so worried about Biden’s age?

The question of how old is too old is maybe best dealt with elsewhere (and here and here). However, one of the main talking points thrown out there against Biden running for a second term is what would happen if, God forbid, he dies in office. Based on the 25th amendment of the US Constitution, the next in line is the Vice President, Kamala Harris. 

And even if Biden decides to willingly step down, retire, and not accept the nomination, the alternative might be that Kamala Harris will step into the slot. Even Nikki Haley recently commented that she thought the 2024 race would be between her and Harris, in the end. 

And Kamala Harris running for or being President is the single worst thing that could happen to the United States if you believe not only the Republicans (here and also here) but even those on the left seem leery of letting Vice President Harris do much more than make goodwill tours. 

All of this begs the question, what, exactly, is so bad about Kamala Harris? One might chalk much of the commentary around her to simple racism, sexism, or both. But when reasonable people say Harris is a mistake, what is going on?

Has she made some gaffes as Vice President? Well, yes, sure. There is not a politician alive (or dead, for that matter) who didn’t say something the wrong way or even said something off-hand that was just plain wrong. Is Harris worse than average? There does not seem to be much evidence that she is particularly bad at communicating. Some initial gaffes framed her as some sort of gaffe machine, but many of the criticisms seem to be more about her political outlook than incorrect statements. Other times criticism seems more like policing behavior than an actual problem. Honestly, she has a strange laugh and means she is not up for being President? 

Has she voiced unpopular or controversial opinions as Vice President? Probably. Here perhaps we get closer to what the real issue is. Her portfolio as VP has included immigration reform and voting reform, two areas of very special interest to Republicans. Both of these issues are no-win situations. Immigration has turned into a political football (or rather, more of one) and Harris is caught in the middle. The GOP has made much hay of criticizing Harris over these issues. 

So, if she hasn’t really done anything terrible over the past couple of years, maybe the issue is that she simply hasn’t done anything much at all? Generally being Vice President is a pretty thankless, do-nothing job to begin with. A good VP stays out of trouble, out of sight, and out of mind. They might do some lifting here and there around elections and be ready to travel around the world as a sort of second-place prize for places and events not quite ready for the real deal of a presidential visit. So one might expect very little from any particular Vice President.

But Harris has been active on a surprising number of fronts as Vice President. She tackled immigration policy convincingly by addressing long-term problems in Mexico and Guatemala. Unfortunately for Harris, the recent influx of migrants is coming more from Caribbean-facing states like Cuba, Haiti, and Venezuela.  One might fault Harris for not being able to predict the future, but her success in finding funding for her initial plan shows a willingness to see things through, a vanishingly rare trait in politics these days. 

She has also proved herself to be a capable representative of the United States. Her recent attendance at the Munich Security Conference saw her trying her best to reassure Europe of US support for Ukraine, underscoring her foreign policy chops even if Congress might have other thoughts. She clearly sees the need for a strong United States on the international stage. 

But she has also been very active on the domestic policy front as well- tackling voter reform with some gusto, for example, only to see it fall apart when key members of her own party defected to a watered-down electoral reform bill. It is hard to fault her for this kind of breakdown, after all as VP she isn’t the head of the party, Biden as President is. 

Harris’ real kryptonite may be polling. Harris’s approval rate normally is in negative territory, hitting a high of 57% unfavorable back just as recently as December, but polls this calendar year find her disapproval hovering around the low 40s (but her barely budging out of the mid-30s). Obviously, poor polling numbers are a problem for someone who might run in an election, but right now Harris is not running and has been more or less out of the public eye. If she were to mount some sort of campaign poll numbers might change.

Over all, there is a lot to recommend Harris as a political operative, but is she ready for a prime-time presidential campaign? It seems like she has a lot to offer once people pay attention to what she is doing. A better question might be, is Biden ready? 

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